1. Similarities:
India & China
2. Factor
against India
1. China’s GDP is higher
2. Proxy aggression
3. Pakistani Angle
4. Control over Border Regions
5. Cyber domain.
3. Factors
against China
1. #1: Enemy of Enemy is our friend
2. #2: China’s vulnerability in Indian Ocean
3. #3: India’s Soft Power
4. 4: Military technology
5. #5: India’s economic position vs Chinese Saturation
4. #6:
Demographic dividend
5. China as
World’s Superpower
6. What
should India do to counter China?
7. Conclusion
Similarities: India & China
• In the
1950s, India and China were weak developing countries.
• Today,
China is the world’s second-largest economy and India is in the top ten.
• Both have
nuclear weapons + huge military.
But there are many factors, which put these two nations on
unequal grounds:
Factor against India
China’s GDP is higher
• In 1970, India had a higher GDP
than China, But Today, China’s GDP is four times that of India’s, and the ratio
is still increasing.
• By almost any measure, China is
more developed than India. Because In addition to its GDP, only a small percent
of China’s people live in poverty,
• China has
made a far greater effort to educate its
citizens than India.
• The
access to electricity and the Internet are all higher in China.
• Statistical
projections suggest that China’s GDP, could equal that of the US by 2030.
• While India just tried to be ahead
of Pakistan in term of Defense technology, China has sought to counter the
United States’ military power. That’s why China has made greater investments in
military power, both conventional (Tanks and missiles) and unconventional
(cyber attacks).
• US is facing economic downturn and
unemployment. Therefore Obama administration has reduced the defense
expenditure.
• Right now, China has unquestioned
military superiority over India and if situation continues to be bad in USA’s
economy then Chinese military will become even more advanced and high tech than
USA’s.
• Apart from these things, China is a
permanent member of UN security council (UNSC) and thus enjoys the veto power.
• China has a major voice in the
international system, especially in economic and financial matters- compared to
India
• All of
these make China a formidable antagonist for India, if the status quo is
maintained.
Proxy aggression
• China tilts towards Pakistan in its
dispute with India over Kashmir. China has supported the rebel movements in
India’s Northeast and red corridor.
• China is assertive (and at times
aggressive) about its claim on the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh.
• Chinese
military deployments across the disputed border are much, much greater than
India’s.
Pakistani Angle
• Pakistan
is India’s permanent security headache.
• Pakistan has long received Chinese
support, ensuring that India’s attention is diverted away from China.
• Pakistan is providing China with a
friendly route to the Energy rich Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf.
Control over Border Regions
• China has
an ambitious forward policy towards controlling Tibet and Xinjiang.
• While
India prefers to maintain status quo for issues on Kashmir and North East.
• China has done an impressive job
promoting economic integration and infrastructure both in Tibet and Xinjiang
• India has failed to bring economic
prosperity, internal security and reasonable governance in Kashmir and North
East.
• In fact
Delhi is struggling to provide, 50 years later, basic road connectivity to its
frontier regions.
Cyber Warfare
• In Information and Technology,
India has a globally competitive industry and a deep pool of talent.
• But it has not been used for
notorious purposes like China does :hacking gmail accounts of Dalai Lama and
foreign ambassadors, hacking and deleting websites of Tibetian activists etc.
• Cyber warfare, communication
blockade, internet censorship (in an event of war), Chinese capacity are better
than ours.
Factors against China
#1: Enemy of Enemy is our friend
• Chinese
relations with the US have entered a difficult phase.
• China is engaged in maritime
territorial disputes with Japan [Recall the earlier article on Senkaku/Diaoyu
islands,CLICK ME]
• China’s
maritime claims in the South China Sea have caused deep resentment in Vietnam,
the Philippines, Brunei and so on.
• And with
all these countries, we have good bilateral relations.
• Therefore,
the present international power play is arguably to India’s advantage.
#2: China’s vulnerability in Indian Ocean
• China’s
goods and oil cargos pass through Indian Ocean, over which over Navy has
formidable presence. (Observe Strait of Malacca in above map).
• Therefore,
unless China is 100% sure of a full military and psychological victory over
India, it would have no use for a military attack.
• And hence
the possibilities of a Chinese offensive in the high Himalayas are considered
remote.
• Besides,
the increased Indo-China trade and economic relations are a deterrent to
belligerence (Aggressiveness) because those who trade heavily do not usually
trade blows.
#3: India’s Soft Power
• India has
a history of largely positive relations with Himalayan neighbours, the central
Asian states and Russia (the two notable exceptions of China and Pakistan).
• China, by
contrast, has a history of border disputes and outright war with many of its
continental neighbours, from Russia to Vietnam.
• The
growth nationalism in Japan, Korea, and Vietnam. They’re becoming more assertive when dealing
with China.
• Therefore,
China’s access to the Pacific and Indian Oceans, is blocked by a network of
democracies from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan to the Philippines, Indonesia,
and Singapore.
• India’s
rise, by contrast, is not perceived as a threat by other east and southeast
Asian states.
#4: Military technology
• India has
no offensive capacity (or doctrine) while China has ample ability to go on the
offensive – as it showed in 1962.
• But the
Chinese also know that India’s defensive capacity along the border is more than
adequate.
• Precision
strike weapons (guided missiles etc) cost US $500,000 a round in 1990. They
cost $10,000 or less today.
• It means
the price of precision strike weapons has been coming down, and their
reliability, range and damage-power has been increasing.
• During
war, Use of such Precision strike weapons favor countries with defensive
strategies (India).
#5: India’s economic position
• Economic
growth is easier when you are catching up to richer countries. Because there is a world of foreign
technology and business practices for you to acquire and use to increase your
productivity rapidly.
• But After
a few decades of catching up, you have taken advantage of most foreign
know-how. At that point, economic growth would require you to invent your own
technology.
• This
means slower growth in productivity
• China is
perhaps 25 years ahead of India in its economic development, which means that
it is 25 years closer to hitting these limits.
• So
India’s potential rate of growth going forward is higher.
• When we
combine this with demography, it is possible for India’s GDP to overtake China
in the future.
#6: Demographic dividend
• Within a
few decades, the Chinese labour force will shrink (because of their one child
policy) and thus China’s internal consumer demand = reduced..
• supply of
young Chinese people in rural areas who can move into manufacturing jobs =
reduced
• Thus
China’s GDP will start declining.
• But India
faces no such demographic crunches.
• If we
pour more money in vocational skill
training, then we’ll have a young, productive and growing labour force = higher
GDP in future.
Food for thought
• It is
said that in the coming years, China will replace US as the world super power.
However last major power transition from Britain to the US (After World War II)
helped India achieve independence.
• So let’s
consider for a moment, what will happen to India, If and when there is power
transition from US to China
China as World’s Superpower
• After the
death of the Dalai Lama, China could pressure for India to shut down all
Tibetan political activity in India and to force the Tibetan
government-in-exile into further exile outside India.
• Tibetan
refugees in India would be asked to take Indian citizenship or to leave India.
• Unlike
the 1962 war, a future military clash may not be restricted to land warfare at
the border — instead, we may see a more dispersed set of strikes with precision
weapons that disable Indian capabilities as well as cyber attacks.
• China
would also be likely to bring to bear financial pressure on India, using
economic warfare levers via high levels of investment and trade.
• China
could armtwist/buy the Politically and Financially weak regimes surrounding
India (Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Nepal)
and build permanent military bases there. Just like US did in Middle
East and Central Asia.
• Similarly,
China could soon enjoy a permanent and relatively inexpensive naval presence in
the Indian Ocean via naval bases in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Maldives etc.
• And then,
China might end up controlling Tawang, which Chinese officials currently refer
to as part of “south Tibet” (along with the rest of Arunachal Pradesh)
• If in
future, another 26/11 terror attack happens in india, and India decides to
launch military strike against Pakistan, then China would be in a position to
pressure India into an unfavourable settlement or ceasefire.
• China
would then silence Indian free speech on internet and in international
platforms (UN etc), via combination of diplomatic and economic pressure, and
Chinese cyber Attacks.
• Ultimately,
it might result in a kind of “Finlandisation” of India, according to which
Indian leaders would make regular pilgrimages (visits) to China to
“co-ordinate” and seek approval of Chinese leaders, on all major international
questions even at the cost of Indian national interests.
Well then Good grief, China is not the world power! But then
the question is:
What should India do to counter China?
• When we
invest money in military or medical research or child education, it’d determine
what capabilities we will have 20 years hence. But unfortunately the current
political environment: policies are oriented more towards short term electoral
benefits.
• The
foremost task for India is to maximise its potential national power by
maximising its economic growth & demographic dividend, reducing poverty,
enhancing social peace and securing international peace.
• Adopt an
anti-access, area denial strategy in Tibet, where China is dependent on a
limited number of roads, rail lines and runways.
• India
should cooperate more actively with other Asian countries to make it harder for
Chinese naval power to operate in the Indian Ocean.
• India
must fix its cyber vulnerabilities, Government websites and communication
system — this is a problem more in need of attention than large sums of money
(by the standards of military spending).
• Compared
with India’s, Chinese military hardware costs are lower because they typically
involve domestic production. Therefore, India should increase the spending on
Research and Development for Domestic production of military hardwares.
• Chinese
military strategic doctrine emphasises speed and surprise and thus Indian
counter doctrine should emphasise paranoia and flexibility.
• Tactically
speaking a mountainous border is good terrain to Indian army to defend, but it
still leaves room for strategic surprises — for instance, a Chinese attack
through Bhutan.
• Ideally,
India’s military should constantly think through such novel scenarios and fine
tune the deployment accordingly.
Conclusion
• We must
of course engage, economically and culturally with China to better our
relationships.
• But
China’s geopolitical interests are fundamentally adversarial to India’s. China
is a nation with definite views on the international order and border Issues,
which will prevent it from becoming India’s most trusted ally.
• The gap
between Chinese and Indian power is much less than previous decades, but there
is no room for complacency.
• Moreover,
the costs of adopting preventive measures are much lower than the costs of
inviting Chinese aggression by failing to compete.
• Therefore,
it would be irresponsible for India not to take steps to ensure that China
thinks twice before challenging the status quo in relationship.
Bitterness in Indo-China relations because
1. Recent
evidence to understand China’s aggression :denial of visas to kashmiris and
residents of Arunachal stating that they are integral parts of china(given
special type of visas).
2. South
china sea dispute(recently warned against India- Vietnam’s oil exploration
pact).
3. China
Voiced against our President’s visit to Arunachal.
4. Rapidly
developing infrastructure and Highways at Borders and new
deployments(photographic evidence from NASA’s satellites).
5. increasing
ties with Pakistan(Chashma nuclear reactors, Paksat launching, string of pearls
policy) f.India’s ship has been taken into its custody and released soon after
some questionnaire saying that We had violated the international maritime laws
in south China sea(India denied ) f.constructing dam with no prior consultation
with India on Brahmaputra in Tibet(Zangmu project).
6. g.negotiations
started with Bhutan and Nepal regarding strengthening of ties and military
bases.
China is facing internal problems
1. no
democracy, nearly a million protests in previous year, strict laws of
inheritence- growing dissatisfaction, resurgent movements and separatist
movements(Uyghurs, Xinziang, Shanghai, Taiwan).
2. a million
protests is not a simple issue as any protest is nothing but a simple and
visible tip of ice berg- i mean a great amount of dissatisfaction among
people.no country can concentrate on external issues without improving internal
problems.
3. recent
India China developments- joint consultative mechanism, SHADE(shared
Deconfliction- first military development of its kind between India and China)
4. India’s
recent developments in military issues Dassault Raffale deal, INS sahyadri,
Shiwalik, Satpura, Agni 5, Arihant(nuclear),INS Vikramaditya , Ins
vikrant(under construction) and pacts like GLONASS, process initiated to launch
one more new naval base at Kolkata(preparedness towards China’s string of
pearls policy. regular military exercises-with France and Germany, exercise in
Rajastan….many others malabar exercises(all these happened in recent past- a
year)
5. china’s
one child policy may show a negative impact on its future but it is only up to
2 to 3 decades. After that it would be more advantageous to it.
6. our
missiles and nuclear power may deter war but once the war is broken out, out of
unforeseen accidents it causes huge losses to us.
7. Today India-
China trade value is nearly $70 billion. so huge. and so it is a crucial time
to diversify our markets to avoid dependence on China by strengthening our
economy.(otherwise it can create inflation in our country during war times
because of huge mismatch in bilateral trade balance)
8. It is
time to strengthen our systems to cope up the situation. we have to focus on
long term issues also(education, research, diplomacy, new markets and trade….)
Ref
1. Various
editorials on IndianExpress
2. http://econintersect.com/b2evolution/blog3.php/2012/08/30/investing-bets-china-and-or-india
3. “The
India-China Rivalry by Robert D. Kaplan map republished with permission of
Stratfor.”
Source: World Bank database and econintersect.com
GauravAditya
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